Brazil Coffee Update: December 1, 2017

Brazil Coffee Update: December 1, 2017

There are a couple of developments related to Brazil’s coffee crop that are worth sharing: Forecast accuracy, changing weather (comparison to normal is simply odd), and today’s forecast (there is a whopping large amount of rain).

Check out the two histograms below.   On the left is the predicted P/PET 8 days ago (on November 24).  The very healthy water situation is quantified in the red numbers:  only 3% of Brazil’s main coffee growing hectares were forecasted to be very dry (P/PET < 0.40) and only 9% in the next category, P/PET of 0.4-0.8.   The histogram on the right shows what happened the past 7 days:  15% of the coffee crop was very dry, another 22% dry and only 33% was very moist/wet.  The forecast had 66% of the area in this very moist/wet category.    Forecast accuracy is something to keep an eye on in the coming months.

171201 Coffee update - Brazil.gif

Here is another interesting perspective. The past 30 days, especially across nearly all eastern Minas Gerais (MG), have been drier than normal, as has northern Parana.  Northern Espirito Santo (ES) remains drier than normal, and reports state that the reservoirs are low (but there is real hope in the forecast for the next 7 days).

171201 Coffee update - Brazil 2.gif

The final two maps (#2 and #3) show today’s forecast.  What a forecast!  In a band across MG there are large amounts of rain forecast – upwards of 250mm and more.  The southern extent of the coffee area, northern Parana, look to be dry, as is southern Sao Paulo.   Even ES looks to get some big rain, which may help fill some of the reservoirs.

The P/PET ratios, for some areas, are big – rainfall amounts of 250mm with less than 10mm of PET.

171201 Coffee update - Brazil 3.gifWe will see in 7 days how this turns out!

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