This case study series includes weekly reviews of the monsoon season as it unfolds across India. The 4 month monsoon, [June-September] accounts for 75% of rainfall in India. Nearly half of India’s farmland, without any irrigation, depends on annual June-September rains to grow crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane, cotton, soybeans, pulses and vegetables.
Observed Rainfall Patterns
This report will cover Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh in addition to India. Eastern India is experiencing heavy rainfall largely due to a hyperactive low-pressure area. Much of central India has been experiencing much higher than normal rainfall, particularly in Gujarat.
Forecast Rainfall Patterns
The forecast for the next 7 days shows drier than normal patterns across central and western India and wetter than normal conditions in eastern parts of the region. Excessive rainfall in parts of this region cause floods, landslides and waterborne diseases. The monsoon will be moving east and into Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh as shown in the maps below of precipitation.
The monsoon season started strong in June and aWhere will continue to monitor the progression of these critical Karif rains.
“In southwest Asia, many of the spring-bred swarms migrated to the Indo-Pakistan border before the monsoon rains so some swarms continued east to northern states and a few groups reached Nepal. These swarms will return to Rajasthan with the start of the monsoon in the coming days to join other swarms still arriving from Iran and Pakistan, which is expected to be supplemented by swarms from the Horn of Africa in about mid-July. Early breeding has already occurred along the Indo-Pakistan border where substantial hatching and band formation will take place in July that will cause the first-generation summer swarms to form in mid-August. (Desert Locust Watch, FAO)
Regional Highlight: Gujarat
The monsoon over Gujarat has been “vigorous” according to IMD. Gujarat has been quite wetter than normal over the past month but the forecast points to slightly drier conditions in parts of the region.
Weather Variability and Trends
aWhere’s robust and complete weather data from over 40,000 weather stations can be used to generate insights on weather and its impact on crops and food security for any location or defined region of interest by looking at the past 15 years, today, and 15 days into the future. For the location below, the coefficient of variation* (CV) for precipitation is 68% and precipitation over potential evapotranspiration (P/PET) is 72%. CV is a measure of variability and anything above 20% is considered highly variable, at 68% and 72%, these charts show how variable the rainfall is in this location with temperature increases adding to PET totals. Weather variability makes it difficult for farmers to plan farm operations because it is difficult to predict how the weather will behave. Farmers need real-time information and forecasts to make better decisions about when to plant, fertilize, and harvest. Monitor these trends using aWhere’s Interactive Weather Map of India. Sign up for a free adaptER Platform account to get started.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of the material on these maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of aWhere concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
aWhere’s localized, daily weather data can help governments get ahead of weather events by looking at historical trends coupled with weather forecasts. Indian farmers need in-time weather-based insights to make informed crop management decisions to increase productivity, profitability and resilience. Fortunately, the tools and partnerships now exist to address this knowledge gap – today.
Please contact us for more information on partnering to build a brighter future for farmers in India.