Rains in the forecast!
On September 12, 2019, aWhere analysts reviewed the current rainy season in Kenya. Kenyan authorities had indicated rains would be coming early and this was welcome news after a poor March 2019 rainy season.
Western Kenya has continued to receive rains well in excess of potential evapotranspiration – thus conditions are not water limited and in some cases, there may be too much rain!
The map to the right of the past 30 days of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration (P/PET) shows hints of the arrival of the October rains to the east: P/PET ratios are increasing in Makueni, Kitui, and Machakos.
aWhere’s weekly climate chart above shows rainfall variability over time. This location has been receiving more rain than normal this month and into the forecast.
Western Kenya continues to see steady rains. The rainfall forecast (map to the left) is promising for this region. If farmers were alerted of these rains, those who acted and planted likely have had a fine start to the growing season.
With steady weekly rainfall, farmers should be planting to take advantage of what appears to be a great start to the October rains. We heard Kenyan authorities predicted early rains and those farmers that acted early should be seeing good germination. The 14-day forecast (charts below) shows good rains over the next two weeks and the 7-day forecast map below shows wetter than expected conditions across much of Kenya – the 2019 October rains appear to have a great start. Good advice from Kenyan authorities!!
Weather variability remains a challenge but farmers over much of Kenya this year are seeing October
rains that fit (or are even earlier than) the traditional mid-October start. We certainly hope good rains
Implications and Recommendations
The increased variability seen in Kenya these past years drives home the point that ag-weather information services are part of the adaptation solution: farmers who trusted the announced early onset should be doing well. Digital agronomy starts with timely insights to farmers and input providers. Agronomic science can deliver information on timely planting, when and how much to fertilize, and harvesting and grain conditioning operations to maximize yield, quality and food safety. Geo-targeted text messages can deliver the insight in-time! Contact aWhere for specific recommendations.
Email BeaWhere@www.awhere.com with any specific questions on how to deliver economic resilience to climate change to your organization.
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